Research Program / Claims / beliefs-5

Future events cannot be predicted precisely to time or date because free will is always operating.

未来事件无法被精确到时间或日期地预测,因为自由意志始终在运作。

Concept beliefs · Domain Belief Dynamics and Mind–Body Regulation · testable prediction · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status contradicted

This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.

Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
Two types of prospective tasks are pre-registered: about 100 predictions of event times for observable celestial phenomena, and about 500 people's voluntary choice and action timing predictions, followed for 12 months; error windows at the second, minute, or date level are specified in advance, distinguishing whether participants know about the predictions. Successful celestial predictions suffice to negate the unqualified assertion; failure to predict human behavior only estimates prediction error and cannot independently prove free will as the cause.
Suggested paper title
Temporal Forecast Accuracy for Physical Events and Voluntary Actions: A Pre-registered Prospective Comparison
What it would overturn
If even controllable physical events cannot in principle be predicted to a predetermined time precision, the hypothesis that 'empirically validated dynamical models allow event-time prediction within finite error' would be overturned.
Candidate labs / funders
National Aeronautics and Space Administration,Jet Propulsion Laboratory,Solar System Dynamics Group:[技术资料](https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/); Stephen M. Fleming,University College London,Metacognitive Neuroscience Laboratory
Specificity of Seth's formulation
The date restriction appears concrete, but the event scope and allowable error for 'precise' are undefined; if only events influenced by personal choice are meant, that version and its free-will causal explanation remain undecided.
Note
This rating applies to the user-provided unqualified statement; finite-precision prediction is not infinite-precision determination of the future, and unpredictability may also stem from chaos, stochasticity, or insufficient information.
Evidence (1, DOI-verified via Crossref)
  • The JPL Planetary and Lunar Ephemerides DE440 and DE441 — Ryan S. Park; William M. Folkner; James G. Williams; Dale H. Boggs (2021), The Astronomical Journal
    以观测拟合的行星及月球动力学模型支持精确到指定时间尺度的天象预测,反驳所有未来事件均不能预测到时间或日期的普遍断言。[论文](https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/de440_de441.html)

Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim beliefs-5, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/beliefs-5