Research Program / Claims / emotions-7
A prediction experiment can be conducted: take paper, write numbers 1 to 20, covering a month-long period, write the first reaction without criticism, record predictions, and observe periodic active peaks and inactive troughs.
可进行预测实验：取纸写1到20，覆盖一个月时段，写第一反应，不批判，记录预测并观察周期性活跃高峰与非活跃低谷。
Concept emotions · Domain Belief Dynamics and Mind–Body Regulation · methodological suggestion · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status untested · ★ fundable
This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.
Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
Approximately 500 participants, over six consecutive months, pre-record 20 timestamped, unalterable first-reaction predictions each month. Prediction targets are limited to subsequently generated random 20-choice targets or events with clear criteria; a free prediction log is also kept monthly. Pre-registered hit criteria, chance rate, handling of missing data, and range of candidate periods. The first three months are used for modeling, and the latter three for validating whether peaks prospectively predict accuracy. In total, about 60,000 structured records; statistical units must account for within-individual correlation. Public logs are judged by reviewers who are unaware of the participants' emotions and the date hypothesis, matching predictions against targets and decoys.
Suggested paper title
Accuracy and Temporal Stability of First-Response Forecasts: A Preregistered Six-Month Diary Study
What it would overturn
If prospectively replicable accuracy cycles on independent random targets are found, this would negate the null model that prediction bias is entirely due to chance fluctuations and record/selection scoring choices.
Candidate labs / funders
Zoltan Kekecs，Transparent Psi Project（透明预测实验方法）; Jan Walleczek，Phenoscience Laboratories（实验流程校准）
Specificity of Seth's formulation
The 1–20 numbers, first reaction, and one-month period are relatively specific procedures; however, the original statement does not specify whether 20 represents dates, items, or targets, nor the cycle length or hit rules. The experiment must add these new conventions explicitly.
Note
No paper directly testing the complete monthly practice was found; one month of data is insufficient to establish a monthly cycle. Post-hoc selection of peaks and matching vague predictions to real events severely inflate apparent hit rates.
Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim emotions-7, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/emotions-7