Research Program / Claims / psychic-abilities-6

Through an experiment of daily fixed-slot prophecy recording, correspondences between predictions and future events can be observed; it requires writing at least five predictions at the same time each day and continuously comparing with controls.

通过每日固定时段预言记录实验，可观测预测与未来事件对应；要求每天同一时间写至少五条预测，并持续对照。

Concept psychic abilities · Domain Life Motivation and Creative Evolution · testable prediction · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status contested · ★ fundable

This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.

Seth sources (book §session)
  • esp-power §9
Adjudicating experiment
Conduct a prospective journal study: approximately 300 participants over 180 days, writing at least 5 predictions at the same time each day; primary analysis is fixed to the first 5 submitted, yielding an estimated 270,000 entries; text submissions are timestamped and overwriting is prohibited, with omissions faithfully retained. For natural events, event categories, locations, time windows, and verifiable sources are pre-specified; for random targets, the next day's stimuli are drawn after the journal is locked, with participants and experimenters unaware of outcomes in advance, and independent raters blind to true dates and target identities. Baselines are established using season- and region-mismatched events and matched control predictors, compared against weather/news probability models; a hierarchical Bayesian model estimates incremental predictive power, with pre-registered priors, Bayes factor thresholds, and fixed stopping times. Including preparation and independent validation, this takes approximately 12–18 months.
Suggested paper title
Prospective Daily Forecasting Beyond Base Rates: A Preregistered Bayesian Study
What it would overturn
If the journal can predict independent random events generated after submission, it would revise the assumption that, in the absence of information leakage, current predictions and future independent random outcomes are conditionally independent.
Candidate labs / funders
Zoltan Kekecs：透明预知重复实验; Jan Walleczek，Phenoscience Laboratories：实验偏差校准; Stefan Schmidt，University of Freiburg：异常认知与冥想研究; BIAL Foundation：曾资助相关预注册研究
Specificity of Seth's formulation
The fixed time and daily minimum of five entries are explicit and reproducible procedures, but target distributions, scoring criteria, and expected effect sizes are missing; mere correspondence with ordinary events cannot distinguish precognition, common-sense prediction, and chance.
Note
This review did not find a peer-reviewed paper that performed a blinded probabilistic re-evaluation of all 741 original records from 1964–1965; 320/741 ≈ 43.2% is not a meaningful statistical hit rate because event baselines and scoring rules are lacking; any archival re-analysis must first verify completeness, original timestamps, and traces of modification. [Yale archival finding aid](https://hdl.handle.net/10079/fa/mssa.ms.1090)
Evidence (2, DOI-verified via Crossref)

Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim psychic-abilities-6, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/psychic-abilities-6