probabilities

Probabilities (probabilities) Thread Archive

1. What are Seth's specific claims about this concept? How many times was it mentioned, in which books, and did the wording change over time?

• Seth explicitly stated that when discussing time and precognition, it is impossible to avoid the concept of probabilities [dreams-projections §3].
• Seth indicated that in dream reality, individuals can act out many probabilities and try various alternatives; for example, a person might spend three years in a dream experiencing the alternative life of becoming a doctor, thereby "checking out one probability and choosing another" [dreams-projections §3].
• Seth emphasized that individuals choose the probabilities they wish to physically materialize in physical reality [dreams-projections §3].
• Seth noted that reincarnation is only a part of this probability system—that portion which falls within a specific universe's range [dreams-projections §3].
• Seth also mentioned that in dreams a person can choose among many probabilities, and these selves genuinely exist—for example, a "doctor you might have become" would exist in a probable system, and that self would likewise call our system a probability system [dreams-projections §3].
• Seth was also cited as saying that all such predictions (such as pronouncements about lifespan) are indeed based on probabilities; by and large, if no major drastic changes occur in the personality or behavior, the prediction will usually be fulfilled [early-sessions-5 §230].
• In another source, Seth is described as discussing "profound psychic interconnections" involving probable pasts and futures, dreams, telepathy, present abilities, suggestions, and related themes, saying such things as: "While you sit in the present moment reading this book, you are at the center of a universal web of probabilities, and your slightest psychic or emotional acts affect that web" [unknown-reality-1 §686].
• Regarding whether the wording changed over time: In the early sessions, "probabilities" was already used as a core concept (e.g., Session 230 where predictions depend on probabilities); in the 1970s material (e.g., Seth, Dreams and Projections), the term was used more systematically to explain dreams, projections, and multiple personalities; by 1974 (e.g., Session 566 cited in The "Unknown" Reality), the concept was further elaborated into a complex interconnected "universal web" image. The material shows the expression of this concept trending from concise to systematic to poetic across different periods.
• Regarding frequency of occurrence: the material does not provide specific statistics on how many times the word "probabilities" appears [dreams-projections §3] [early-sessions-5 §230] [unknown-reality-1 §686].

2. What mechanism does he give?

All probabilities and possibilities originate from "no time," from which the individual makes choices, thereby forming specific combinations of events [early-sessions-9 §438].
The inner self possesses and utilizes awareness of and calculation of probabilities; the individual builds events from probabilities as if from building blocks [early-sessions-9 §438].
Most events are only "solidified" at the last moment (in your terms of time), and no external source predetermines events [early-sessions-9 §438].
Every actualized event automatically generates new probabilities; probabilities expand infinitely in the manner of value fulfillment, and one action does not necessarily lead to a specific next action [early-sessions-9 §438].
The individual can try multiple probability paths in dreams and choose one for physical actualization—for example, Ruburt rehearsing probable lives such as that of a doctor in dreams [dreams-projections §3].
Through conscious thoughts and beliefs, the individual attracts a given probability from its possible state and transforms it into physical reality—for example, a "robbery" event requires the cooperation of both the victim's and the robber's beliefs [personal-reality §656].
All action is initially psychic; probability actions that are not actualized remain valid and are carried out in their full variants by probable selves in other realities, and communication exists between these worlds [unknown-reality-1 §679 note].
The probability system is open; the individual can alter an already-initiated process at any time [early-sessions-9 §438].
The individual stands at the center of a "universal web of probabilities" affected by his or her slightest psychic or emotional acts [unknown-reality-1 §686 note].

3. Are there observable inferences or explicit predictions (including time, quantity, conditions)?

The material does not address this.

4. Where did he say science at the time was wrong, and in what direction should it look?

Seth pointed out that science's fundamental error at the time lay in using only the outer senses and their instruments to probe the "camouflage pattern," and these tools themselves carry distortion effects—any material instrument has built-in distortion, translating data it cannot directly understand into a humanly comprehensible form, thereby diluting, simplifying, and distorting the original information in the process [dreams-projections §2]. The finer the particles science looks at with increasingly precise instruments, the more seemingly endless particles it sees—all still spinning within the camouflage pattern; the deeper instruments penetrate the physical universe, the more automatically they translate what is seen into familiar camouflage patterns, becoming "prisoners of the instruments" [dreams-projections §2]. Science believes the universe is composed of known elements, but these elements are merely camouflage forms of basic life force or reality; the truly basic reality cannot be discovered through the outer senses [dreams-projections §2]. In addition, the theory of universal expansion used by science was also judged by Seth to be erroneous [unknown-reality-1 §702].

The direction science should instead take is to use the inner senses and the "mind"—the mind being the meeting place of the inner and outer senses and the single most important tool; it pervades the entire body and constructs the physical camouflage, whereas the brain only processes camouflage patterns while the mind handles the basic principles of all levels—therefore the mind is where the secrets of the universe are to be discovered [dreams-projections §2]. Seth emphasized that scientists will eventually be forced to use the inner senses, otherwise they will only face camouflage and reach a dead end—not because their eyes are closed, but because they have not used the right eyes [dreams-projections §2]. The concrete method is "look for what you do not see, explore seemingly empty places," looking between events, because that is where life force is abundant; what the outer senses see clearly is camouflage, and what appears empty is precisely where camouflage is lacking—worth exploring and will provide evidence [dreams-projections §2]. Science will also be led back to its own inner source—for example, when space travel is impeded by time factors, science will be compelled to consider methods such as telepathy, and will eventually discover that "space" itself is a distortion, and that interstellar travel must be accomplished by leaving the physical camouflage behind and through psychic and spiritual energy transformation [unknown-reality-1 §702].

5. What experiments or exercises did he suggest? What did Jane and Rob actually do and observe at the time?

Seth once suggested that Jane and Rob could try various experiments on their own and permitted them to treat this as "homework," saying "you can of course train your abilities to some extent in this manner" [early-sessions-1 §12].

Experiments/exercises suggested by Seth:

• In the early sessions, Seth explicitly stated: you can try whatever experiments you wish on your own; nothing will be lost, and you may even benefit—calling it "homework" [early-sessions-1 §12].
• In Session 22, Seth encouraged Rob's practice of the "first inner sense," telling him he was "doing well and should try the exercise often" [dreams-projections §2].
• The practice method for the first inner sense is concretely described in the material: look at a vase in the room, a picture on the wall, plants, and so on; using the "mind's eye," walk around these objects and clearly imagine their backs; then stand at the window and look out, imagine walking across the Walnut Street Bridge, feel the wooden decking underfoot, continue walking along the street, and finally attempt to use "inner touch" to envelop and sense the feelings of the houses and trees on both sides [dreams-projections §2].

Experiments Jane and Rob actually conducted:

• Rob's first inner sense exercise: first looked at indoor objects and imagined their backs, then stood by the window and imagined walking across the Walnut Street Bridge and feeling the wooden floor, continuing along the street, attempting to perceive the houses and trees along the way through inner touch [dreams-projections §2].
• Jane's experience: one day while washing dishes in the kitchen, she silently wondered whether Seth would "come by" to comment on a publisher's letter, and immediately received a clear, humorous psychic message: "Are you gluttons for punishment?" A psychic dialogue followed, in which Seth said he would not come that night and had only been nearby because Jane had "called my name from the rooftop" [dreams-projections §2].
• In her experiments, Jane explicitly refused to visualize Seth's image—she could treat the psychic voice as a safe mechanism of the "creative unconscious," but could not accept a Seth figure standing beside her while she washed dishes in the kitchen [dreams-projections §2].
• On the evening of Saturday, January 4, 1964, when Seth was not present, Jane and Rob conducted an experiment following his suggestion to "try something different": they drew the curtains, lit a red Christmas light, laid a black triangular cloth on the dark walnut table, sat opposite each other in dark clothing with hands resting flat on the cloth, placed Jane's wedding ring at the center of the cloth, and sat quietly for about an hour—nothing happened; later they switched to a brass military insignia (which Jane's grandfather had received from his brother and which had just been polished the day before), turned off the lights, and continued sitting quietly in the dark [early-sessions-1 §12].

Phenomena Jane and Rob observed:

• Rob obtained a colored "seeing" or vision in this experiment: he saw a man walking on a road, which he believed was part of the "Joseph series," and planned to ask Seth about it [early-sessions-1 §12].
• In the experiment, Jane observed that her hands often "disappeared"—that is, she could not see her hands, but was not worried that they did not exist; she observed the same phenomenon with the metal insignia [early-sessions-1 §12].
• Jane indicated that even after the sitting, she could still "do something" that night, but after an hour of silence with no results, she felt that achieving some result would require some kind of communication or conversation [early-sessions-1 §12].
• In the latter half of the experiment, Rob began asking Jane random questions in the dark, and Jane spontaneously spoke in a calm voice; the handwriting Rob recorded in the dark was unexpectedly clear and complete; in her monologue, Jane described the story of a 17-year-old girl named Sarah Wellington who died from burns in a shoemaker's shop in England in 1748 [early-sessions-1 §12].

6. Supplements or contradictions given by other concepts in the corpus related to this concept?

Probabilities reveal the core supplement that "unchosen routes of reality are equally valid": all potential actions possess equal reality before physical actualization and are exercised in other probability systems [seth-speaks §16]. Related concepts further supplement: probabilities apply to all levels from thought to cells; the body itself is a "construction of probabilities," whose existence depends on atoms manifesting at specific probability points [unknown-reality-1 §694]. All probabilities eventually become some kind of actuality, just not necessarily within the time system you perceive [early-sessions-5 §226]. The probability system is related to "self number two" or the inner self: the inner self can view the future probabilities of self number one, and probable events do indeed occur somewhere to a self that exists simultaneously in any individual [early-sessions-5 §226]. Supplements further note: through the focus of consciousness, the individual selectively accepts the results of certain overall purposes, desires, or intentions, while other equally legitimate experiences become invisible [unknown-reality-1 §681]; unchosen probable events can be completely altered, significantly adjusted, or even used as springboards for more favorable events [personal-sessions-7 §?].

7. Questions that have not yet been asked

1. Seth claims that 'the inner self can calculate probabilities'—can an experiment be designed comparing an individual's brain electrical activity before decision-making with random probability predictions, to test whether this mechanism has a neural correlate?
2. Seth mentions 'choosing different lives in dreams'—can sleep laboratory dream content analysis be used to statistically examine the correlation between the frequency of occupational or identity switching in dreams and changes in next-day real-world decisions?
3. Seth asserts that 'probability actions not actualized remain valid in other systems'—can psychophysical methods (such as dual-task interference) be used to test whether individuals show enhanced implicit memory for unselected options?
4. The 'first inner sense' exercise suggested by Seth (imagining the backs of objects)—can a virtual reality experiment be designed to measure whether individuals' recall accuracy for the backs of objects improves significantly after training with this exercise?
5. Seth believes that 'instruments have built-in distortion effects'—can the influence of different measurement instruments (such as cameras versus infrared sensors) on observers' subjective judgments of the same physical phenomenon be compared, to test the falsifiability of this assertion?

Appendix: Claim List (for Phase C)

id	claim	type	source
probabilities-1	All probabilities and possibilities originate from "no time," from which the individual chooses and forms combinations of events.	ontological assertion	early-sessions-9 §438
probabilities-2	Probability actions that are not actualized remain valid and are executed by probable selves in other realities.	ontological assertion	unknown-reality-1 §679 note
probabilities-3	The inner self possesses awareness of and calculation of probabilities; the individual builds events from probabilities as if from building blocks.	mechanism description	early-sessions-9 §438
probabilities-4	Most events are only "solidified" at the last moment, and no external source predetermines events.	mechanism description	early-sessions-9 §438
probabilities-5	In dreams, the individual can act out many probabilities and choose one for physical actualization.	mechanism description	dreams-projections §3
probabilities-6	Through conscious thoughts and beliefs, the individual attracts a given probability from its possible state and transforms it into physical reality.	mechanism description	personal-reality §656
probabilities-7	Science should use the inner senses and the "mind," looking for what is not seen and exploring seemingly empty places.	methodological suggestion	dreams-projections §2
probabilities-8	Scientists will eventually be forced to use the inner senses, otherwise they will only face camouflage and reach a dead end.	methodological suggestion	dreams-projections §2
probabilities-9	Rob practiced the first inner sense, imagining walking across the Walnut Street Bridge and perceiving the houses and trees along the way.	experimental record	dreams-projections §2
probabilities-10	Jane and Rob conducted a sitting experiment with a red Christmas light, black triangular cloth, ring, and insignia; Rob saw a man walking on a road.	experimental record	early-sessions-1 §12
probabilities-11	While washing dishes in the kitchen, Jane received a clear psychic message from Seth: "Are you gluttons for punishment?"	case evidence	dreams-projections §2
probabilities-12	Probabilities apply to all levels from thought to cells; the body itself is a "construction of probabilities."	ontological assertion	unknown-reality-1 §694