Research Program / Claims / emotions-8
When writing predictions, usually there is no emotional feeling; occasionally there is a conscious sense of certainty but the prediction is often invalid; non-spontaneous premonitions are often accompanied by strong emotions and certainty.
写下预测时通常不会有情绪感觉;偶尔有意识确定感时预测往往无效;非自发产生的预兆常伴随强烈情绪与确定感。
Concept emotions · Domain Belief Dynamics and Mind–Body Regulation · testable prediction · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status untested · ★ fundable
This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.
Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
Implemented jointly with the emotions-7 cohort: approximately 500 participants are tracked for 6 months. At each prediction, emotional intensity, confidence, and reaction time are recorded, and, before outcome revelation, whether the prediction was spontaneous or prompted. In addition, random assignment of first-reaction versus deliberate-thinking conditions is added. Targets must be generated after predictions are locked, with blinded scoring. The primary test is the slope of confidence × objective hit rate and the interaction with generation mode, with clear pre-definitions of no emotion, certainty, and invalidity. If strongly confident records are too few, the sample is expanded according to pre-registered rules, not by post-hoc threshold changes.
Suggested paper title
Affective Intensity, Confidence, and Forecast Accuracy in Spontaneous and Deliberate Predictions
What it would overturn
Only if accuracy exceeds chance and shows a stable, specific reversed calibration would this challenge the null hypothesis that subjective confidence in such random target tasks carries no information about future targets.
Candidate labs / funders
Zoltan Kekecs,Transparent Psi Project; Stefan Schmidt,University of Freiburg
Specificity of Seth's formulation
The directional prediction that higher confidence is associated with lower accuracy is testable; however, 'usually', 'occasionally', and 'non-spontaneous' must be quantified, and spontaneity cannot be reclassified after outcome knowledge.
Note
No paper directly validating this combined set of predictions was found. Even if overconfidence in ordinary judgment exists, it does not prove the validity of premonitions; low-confidence conditions must still significantly exceed pre-specified chance rates.
Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim emotions-8, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/emotions-8